A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
